The Centre is unlikely to announce an agreement over payment mechanism with Russia until a ceasefire is declared in the Ukraine war, said people in the know. An inter-ministerial group headed by the finance ministry has been meeting regularly for over a month to analyse and discuss payment mechanisms that can work under the current circumstances and ensure the trade between India and Russia is not disrupted. The US had recently said that there would be consequences for countries actively attempting to "circumvent or backfill" American sanctions against Russia.
Only 80.6 per cent of the Rs 6-trillion allocation has been spent by February, data from the Controller General of Accounts shows.
In a major relief to Indian information technology (IT) companies operating in Australia, Canberra has agreed to amend its domestic laws to stop taxing offshore income of such Indian companies, as part of the free trade deal inked. This may lead to savings up to $200 million each year for over 100 Indian IT companies operating in Australia. "The Government of Australia has agreed to amend the domestic taxation law to stop the taxation of offshore income of Indian firms providing technical services to Australia. "This will resolve the issue that the Indian government has raised about the double taxation avoidance agreement (DTAA) between the two governments for the avoidance of double taxation and the prevention of fiscal evasion with respect to taxes on income," said a commerce ministry official.
Economic recovery from the pandemic in the US has helped India achieve the $400-billion mark for exports for the first time in any fiscal year. According to the preliminary data compiled by the Department of Commerce, India exported goods worth $73 billion to the US from April 1 to March 21 - up 47 per cent, compared to last year. The US' share of exports, compared to total exports, stood at 18.2 per cent. The country is also India's largest trading partner and export destination.
Exporters are readying back-up routes to send their shipments to the nations belonging to the Commonwealth of Independent States (CIS), including Russia, as the war in Ukraine continues to intensify. Three routes are being explored. The first is the China route using Qingdao port. The second is the International North-South Transport Corridor (INSTC) route that connects Mumbai to Moscow via Iran and Azerbaijan.
India is looking to develop alternative export markets for tea such as Iraq, Saudi Arabia, the US, Japan and Tunisia in view of the Russian invasion of Ukraine, people aware of the matter said. Meetings are being held with buyers in some of these countries in virtual mode, with the help of diplomatic missions located there. Similar meetings for the remaining countries have also been planned.
India's exports are unlikely to get an immediate boost from a depreciating rupee, which touched an all-time low on Monday, driven by rising commodity prices. The rupee fell to 76.97 against the dollar earlier in the day, settling 1.05 per cent weaker than the previous close. Oil prices soared to their highest since 2008 on Monday at $139 per barrel, after the US and European allies explored a Russian oil import ban, while delays in the potential return of Iranian crude oil to global markets increased supply fears.
The apparel and engineering sectors have already witnessed the trend in the past one week. If this continues, it can have an impact on the overall export demand in the coming months, considering that Europe is the largest national export market for India.
India is looking to tap its diplomatic missions abroad to enable grain exporters in the country to ship out wheat and corn as supplies from Russia and Ukraine are expected to remain disrupted for some time to come. Between the two items, pushing for wheat is easier because of a huge domestic surplus. "We are hand holding our exporters and support from various Indian missions abroad is also being channelised accordingly," a senior government official said. Global wheat prices have jumped since the Ukraine crisis started, with wheat futures in the US reaching their highest levels since 2008.
The government may soon give the green light to bilateral trade between Russia and India in their national currencies to avoid any trade disruptions, multiple people aware of the matter said. While the Department of Commerce has recommended the proposal, an announcement is likely to be made by the finance ministry after further deliberations between the Department of Economic Affairs and Department of Financial Services. "The finance ministry will take a call on how to peg the two currencies," a senior government official told Business Standard. In the past, the two nations have had rupee-rouble trade, and when such an arrangement is implemented again, it will bypass the sanctions imposed on Russia by the West.
Nearly five months after its soft launch, the government's e-portal, the National Single Window System (NSWS), is seeing a significant increase in the number of investors using it to get a bunch of approvals for their ventures. The first clearance was granted on 18 January. Since then, the progress has been good. Out of the 1,258 registered users on the portal, 378 were registered in the last one week.
Fitch Ratings on Monday cautioned that the Indian government has little fiscal headroom at its disposal to respond to possible shocks to growth given the country's lowest investment grade credit rating with a negative outlook. "India's public debt/GDP ratio, at about 87 per cent in FY21, is well above the median of around 60% for 'BBB' rated sovereigns. "We revised the Outlook on India's rating to Negative, from Stable, in June 2020, partly owing to our assumptions about the impact of the pandemic on public finance metrics. "The government has little fiscal headroom at its current rating level to respond to possible shocks to growth," it said in a report.
'The robust tax collections give the finance minister a fair amount of headroom for an expansionary fiscal policy.'
India and China have mostly set aside their bilateral differences in order to champion the cause of developing countries at the World Trade Organisation (WTO). That seems to be changing. During the latest round of China's trade policy review, India questioned its northern neighbour's claim that it was a developing country, since, going by the World Bank's definition, its per capita income belongs to that of an upper middle income country. "As per the per capita income level, the Chinese economy belongs to 'upper-middle income'. "How can China still claim to be a developing country? "What are the indicators which China is using to claim such a status?" India asked.
India has agreed to allow import of pork and pork products from the US as a part of a bilateral trade deal which will facilitate export of Indian mangoes and pomegranate to the US. The development comes months after the two governments renewed the India US Trade Policy Forum (TPF), after which both nations agreed to iron out thorny issues that included market access issues pertaining to the agriculture sector.
The Department for Promotion of Industry and Internal Trade (DPIIT) will soon start public consultation for a national retail trade policy, which is likely to include an insurance scheme aimed at providing financial protection against losses caused by theft, accidents or natural calamities. The policy will also spell out ways to give traders access to low-cost finance, promote digital inclusion, and create necessary infrastructure to support them, a senior government official told Business Standard. This is expected to offer relief especially to traditional traders, who are facing stiff competition from large e-commerce players.
Uncertainty looms over India's export outlook, with the new Covid-19 variant Omicron spreading rapidly across the country's key shipment destinations. With the US and parts of Europe witnessing more than 100,000 Covid-19 cases a day, exporters expect some disruption. However, there may not be an immediate decline in exports from India because the order books remain strong at least for the next few weeks, they said.
The government is working towards further review and simplification of the foreign direct investment (FDI) policy to facilitate the proposed initial public offering (IPO) of the Life Insurance Corporation (LIC), Department for Promotion of Industry and Internal Trade (DPIIT) secretary Anurag Jain said on Thursday. The final decision will be taken by the Cabinet. The industry department is working together with the finance ministry's department of financial services (DFS) and department of investment and public asset management (DIPAM) towards a successful listing of the life insurer on the domestic bourses, which is expected to be the largest in India.
As India goes into firming up trade deals with developed nations like Australia, the United Kingdom (UK) and the regional bloc, and the European Union (EU), it will have to be well prepared to negotiate on new-generation issues, such as data protection regulation, e-commerce, and environment. India is yet to negotiate pacts with its trading partners on these evolving issues since discussions between them have until now been largely focused on tariff and non-tariff barriers and the rules of origin. "We can no longer look at trade just as trade. We have to look at it in totality of global and regional conditions.
From Covid-19 essentials, such as Vitamin C supplements and thermometers, to bicycles, laptops, and personal weighing scales, demand for certain items galloped during last financial year as the pandemic altered what Indians used on a day-to-day basis. Imports of outdoor sports equipment, handbags for women, and dentures, among others, plummeted. With outdoor activities coming to a halt last year and schools functioning virtually, imports of sports goods witnessed a decline, while inbound shipments of laptops and battery chargers saw a sharp uptick, according to the import data for the financial year 2020-21.
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